Scoring the High School Swimming All-Americans
Published: July 16, 2020
Introduction
The National Interscholastic Swim Coaches Association (NISCA) recently announced its 2019-2020 High School All-Americans. The full lists can be found here.
Since these lists are objective rankings of (up to 100) All-American times only, with no points ascribed, this publication uses the MeenaMethod to spin the swims and score each performance under three scoring scenarios.
As a reminder, the MeenaMethod primarily applies to Metric Sports, like swimming, and therefore diving (a Marvel Sport) is not included in this publication.
The Scoring Scenarios
The MeenaMethod framework revolves around benchmarks, scales, slopes, performance points, and adjustments.
In this publication, since there are three scoring scenarios that means there are three benchmarks (two individual benchmarks and one group benchmark), using three scales (all with linear slopes), to determine three different point values. Adjustments are not used in this publication.
From an equation perspective:
Performance Points = P
Performance Tested = T
Benchmark = B
Scenario 1
Benchmark = High School Record
In this scenario, every performance for each event is compared against the High School (HS) Record for that event which is sourced from each event page.
Performance Points Equation = P = [1 - ((T - B) / B)] * 100
Scale (i.e., benchmark) = 100.00 points
If a benchmark (i.e., the High School Record) is broken, the performance will earn more than 100.00 points
Since this benchmark is dependent on a single performance, it is considered an individual benchmark
Scenario 2
Benchmark = All-American Time Standard
In this scenario, every performance for each event is compared against the All-American Time Standard for that event which is sourced from each event page.
Performance Points Equation = P = [(1 - ((T - B) / B)) * 100] - 100
Scale (i.e., benchmark) = 00.00 points
Since every performance included is either faster than or equal to the All-American Time Standard, that would mean every performance would earn more than 100 points if the equation from Scenario 1 were used
Therefore to remove insignificant digits from the result, 100.00 points are subtracted because the slope remains linear and the lower number returns the same relative result
Since this benchmark is dependent on a single performance, it is considered an individual benchmark
Scenario 3
Benchmark = Event Average
aka “Zero-Sum”
In this scenario, every performance for each event is compared against the average of every All-American performance in that same event which is sourced from each event page.
Performance Points Equation = P = [(1 - ((T - B) / B)) * 100] - 100
Scale (i.e., benchmark) = 00.00 points
In this scenario, by using the average time as the benchmark, some performances will score positive points (i.e., swam faster than the average) and some performances will score negative points (i.e., swam slower than the average)
In any case, the total points across any single event will equal 0.00 (with an extremely small margin of error due to rounding)
This scenario is dubbed the “Zero-Sum” approach
On average, for both men and women, the above-average positive-point swims are #1 - 40, and the below-average negative-point swims are #41 - 100
Since this benchmark is dependent on multiple performances, it is considered a group benchmark
Scenario Summary
The Data Set
The following data set was used for this analysis:
Gender: 2 = Female and Male
Pool Length: all races are short-course-yards (i.e., 25-yard pool, “SCY”)
Strokes: 5 = Butterfly, Backstroke, Breaststroke, Freestyle, Medley
Individual Events: 8 per gender = 50 Free, 100 Free, 200 Free, 500 Free, 100 Back, 100 Breast, 100 Fly, 200 Medley
Relay Events: 3 per gender = 200 Free, 400 Free, 200 Medley
Performances: up to 100 per event
As opposed to a single competition, all performances included occurred during the 2019 - 2020 season
# of Female Swimmers = 478 (from individual events only, relays not included)
# of Female Schools = 329 (individual events), 157 (relay events), 353 (total unique)
# of Male Swimmers = 469 (from individual events only, relays not included)
# of Male Schools = 332 (individual events), 164 (relay events), 360 (total unique)
Analysis of 1st Place Performances
Note: due to the volume of the performances, this publication only presents the top individual performances and the top 10 school rankings.
Since there are three scoring scenarios, the “individual champion” in this publication is the performance that is the best in most scenarios.
Therefore, under this guidance:
the female individual champion is Claire Curzan from Cardinal Gibbons High School in North Carolina with her 100 Fly performance of 50.35 seconds which placed first in all three scenarios, and
the male individual champion is Wyatt Davis from Carmel High School in Indiana with his 100 Back performance of 45.80 seconds which placed first in the All-American and Event Average scenarios (even though Matt Brownstead broke the HS Record in the 50 free, which gave him first place in that scenario)
The following tables show the female and male 1st Place performances, all relevant benchmarks, and the associated performance points for each event.
Female 1st Place Performances
Male 1st Place Performances
1st Place Performance Summary
In isolation, each of these performances is beyond impressive. However, when looking at the performances relative to others within the same scenario, there are some themes:
The sprinters dominated this season as the male sprinters broke 1 HS Record in the 50 Free (100.26 points) and the female sprinters broke 5 HS Records, the 50 Free (100.23 points), the 100 Fly (101.83 points), the 100 Free (100.23 points), the 100 Back (101.05 points), and the 100 Breast (100.09 points)
No swimmer is more than 10% faster than the All-American time standard, with the fastest being the 100 Fly (9.26%) for female swims and 100 Back (9.07%) for male swims
The number of female records broken appears to have caused the spread of the min and max Event Average to be nearly double the male spread
The female range of 7.59 - 2.85 = 4.74 which is a ~65% wider range than the male range of 2.87 which is 6.80 - 3.93
Despite the variations between the min and max across gender, the averages of the three scenarios are very close regarding female vs male
Analysis of School Rankings
Just like the 1st place performances, there are three scoring scenarios considered. However, in this case, the “school champion” is the school with the lowest combined sum of their absolute placement. This means each scenario is valued equally against one another.
Therefore, under this guidance:
the female school champion is the Harpeth Hall School from Tennessee with a combined score of 8 (6 + 1 + 1), and
the male champion is the St. Xavier High School from Ohio with a combined score of 5 (1 + 2 + 2)
The following tables show the list of school rankings sorted, in ascending order, from the lowest combined sum of their absolute placement to the largest combined sum of their absolute placement. The top 10 schools from each scenario are included, as are schools that placed in the top 10 of another scenario.
Female School Rankings
Male School Rankings
School Rankings Summary
When looking at school rankings, as opposed to individual performances, points serve more of a purpose in an effort to “gamify” the outcome. When this is done swimming can effectively be treated like a quasi-Match Sport whereas opponent contact is still not allowed, but using points gives each school a collected ability to be ranked against other schools.
As previously written in "Rethinking Performance Methodology in 'Objective' Sport", subjectively ascribed point values dilute the outcome and give unnecessary advantages to certain swims. However, all three scenarios in this publication result in objective point values that are directly correlated to the performances, treats every event equally, and maintains the integrity of placement.
Please note, points only tell a story within a single scenario, but rankings can be compared across scenarios.
Individual Benchmarks
Since the High School Record and All-American Time Standard are single data points, they are individual benchmarks.
When comparing the rankings of the High School Record and All-American Time Standard scenarios, the results are similarly correlated for each school, and that is primarily due to the volume of performances.
Therefore, in these two scenarios, since every performance scores points, the strategy is “quantity over quality”.
Regarding the HS Record Rankings, there is a direct correlation between placement and the number of events. For the:
Female Schools:
1st Place = Carmel (IN) with 21 swims
2nd Place = Sacred Heart (KY) with 15 swims
3rd Place = Southlake Carrol (TX) with 12 swims
and this trend continues for every school in the top 10
Male Schools:
1st Place = St. Xavier (OH) with 17 swims (and 7 swimmers)
2nd Place = Phillips Academy (MA) with 17 swims (and 6 swimmers)
3rd Place = Saint Xavier (KY) with 15 swims
and this trend continues for every school in the top 10
Regarding the All-American Time Standard Rankings, while not direct, there is still a correlation between placement and the number of events. For the:
Female Schools:
the average number of performances for the top 10 schools was 10
5 of the top 6 schools has 10+ events
Male Schools:
the average number of performances for the top 10 schools was 12
4 of the top 5 schools has 12+ events
Group Benchmark
Since the average time of all the event performances is a collection of data points, and not a single data point like a record, the Event Average is a group benchmark.
In this scenario, the strategy is “quality over quantity” because only above-average performances gain points, whereas below-average performances lose points. Remember, this is a zero-sum game, so large quantities of performances can hurt you if your performance is not one of the fastest 40 in a given event.
As such, unlike the individual benchmarks above, there is very little, if any, correlation between placement and number of performances in the entire list. Instead, the correlation is targeted between the number of performances that are above average (~1 - 40) and below average (~41 - 100).
Female Schools:
The average number of performances for the top 10 schools was 9
The school with the most performances Southlake Carroll (TX) with 12 performances and Sacred Heart (KY) with 15 performances placed 6th and 8th, respectively
A noteworthy exclusion (i.e., was in the top 10 for both individual benchmark scenarios but did not make the Event Average scenario top 10) is Carmel High School (IN), who placed 39th
Having the most swimmers (11) and most individual performances (18) did not help Carmel in this scenario - while they had 6 performances place between 1 - 40 (average of 24th place), they had 12 performances place 41 - 100 (average of 65th place)
Moreover, each of their three relays were above-average with the 1st (200 Free), 2nd (400 Free), and 4th (200 Medley) fastest times in the country - so with 9 above-average performances they were able to earn positive points, but not enough to crack the top 10
A noteworthy inclusion (i.e., was not in the top 10 for either individual benchmark) is Aloha High School (OR), who placed 9th
Kaitlyn Dobler was the only swimmer for Aloha, and with her 2 individual performances there was no way her school would ever be in the Top 10 in an individual benchmark scenario where its “quantity over quality”
She went 22.30 seconds in her 50 Free earning her 96.95 HS Record points, 5.27 All-American points, and 3.49 Event Average points
She then broken the HS Record in the 100 Breast when she went 58.35 seconds earning her 100.09 HS Record points, 8.54 All-American points, and 6.71 Event Average points
All it took was two quality performances, and not even a relay, to get Aloha High School a national Top 10 Ranking
Male Schools:
The average number of performances for the top 10 schools was 10
Of the two schools with 17 performances, St. Xavier (OH) and Phillips Academy (MA), St. Xavier stayed in the Top 10 and held on to 2nd place, while Phillips Academy dropped to 275th place
On that note, Phillips Academy (MA) is an interesting exclusion (i.e was in the top 10 for both individual benchmark scenarios but not for the event Average scenario)
Having the most performances (17) did not help Phillips in this scenario - while they had 6 (3 individual + 3 relay) performances place between 1 - 40 (average of 17th place), they had 11 performances place 41 - 100 (average of 67th place)
Compared to St. Xavier (OH) with 17 performances as well, St. Xavier had 11 performances place between 1 - 40 (average of 16th place) and 6 performances place 41 - 100 (average of 68th place)
So even though both schools had the same amount of performances, in a zero-sum game they scored on opposite ends of the scale
St. Xavier is 5 above-average (11 minus 6), and Phillips Academy is 5 below-average (6 minus 11) = combined score of 0
A noteworthy inclusion (i.e., was not in the top 10 for either individual benchmark) is West Forsyth High School (GA) who placed 9th
Jack Aikins was the only individual swimmer for West Forsyth, but his speed in the 50 Free (4th place individually) and 100 Free (2nd place individually) carried a 200 Free Relay (16th place) and 400 Free Relay (13th place) onto the All-American lists
Therefore, with four quality swims, averaging 9th place, West Forsyth was able to earn a Top 10 ranking
Also worth noting, two other inclusions onto the Event Average list, both with only two individual swimmers, were Mill Creek High School (GA) with seven performances and Norman Public Schools (OK) with six performances
Conclusion
In conclusion, any of the three scenarios presented today awards objective points to every performance equally, so the rankings tell an unbiased story of who swam the best.
Whenever everyone is chasing the same record or time-standard, an individual benchmark scenario is the right choice. Alternatively, when the cohort is measured in isolation, a group benchmark is the right choice.
The ultimate goal is to correlate the point scoring system directly to the performance itself, and not indirectly via a subjectively chosen method that only uses round numbers in a sport measured in decimals.
Footnotes
Author: Elliot Meena
Published: July 16, 2020
Sources: National Interscholastic Swim Coaches Association (“NISCA”)
Notes:
SCY: Short-Course-Yards (i.e., a 25-yard pool)
NISCA 2019-2020 High School All-Americans: https://www.niscaonline.org/aalists/2020/allam20.html
Due to the volume of the performances, this publication only focuses on the top individual performances and the top 10 school rankings
For those who would like to see an analysis of every performance, please send me an email request for the data
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