Swimflation

Published: May 9, 2022

Introduction

In MeenaMoney, the exhibits within broached the similarities between the financial capital markets and Metric Sports.  One exhibit in particular focused on indexes and incorporated inflation as an analogy.

When someone says inflation, they are generally referencing the monetary cost of a particular item is higher than it was previously. And, generally, this is an accurate description of inflation.

On the surface, inflation is a number that measures the cost of goods over time. Under the water, however, inflation is the product of equations with many variables.  Currently, in the US, “the annual inflation rate for the United States is 8.5% for the 12 months ended March 2022 — the highest since December 1981, according to U.S. Labor Department data published April 12”.  This means that, based on numerous variables, the relative monetary cost of a particular item 8.5% higher than it was in March 2021.  On an absolute basis, for example, something that cost $1.00 in March 2021 now cost $1.08.

When referencing inflation from a broad perspective, a common data point is the Consumer Price Index (“CPI”).  As a refresher, an index is a “number derived from a series of observations and used as an indicator or measure”.  The key word here is “indicator” because it is not intended to be the single source of truth, but rather a point in time reference.

In MeenaMoney, indexes for Metric Sports are referenced as an effective means to measure progress, or advancement, over time.  For example, by creating a Sprint and Distance index based on the world record progressions of the 50 and 1500 LCM Freestyle for both Male and Female swimmers, it was theorized that humans have progressed ~10-12% in physical strength over a 50-year period.

What is Swimflation?

If someone were to say “swimflation”, the general perception would be the sport of swimming has become faster over the years. Generally speaking, this is an accurate description of swimming, and therefore of swimflation.

When referencing swimflation from a broad perspective, it is the amount of time by which swimming events have improved (i.e., gotten faster) over a specified period of time.

One of the nice things about analyzing Metric Sports is the numbers do not lie, so clearly times are getting faster. Across the board, from qualifying times to world records, swimflation is real. 

But how real? Is it 10-12%, the result of the Sprint and Distance indexes referenced in MeenaMoney? Maybe, if we are looking at a ~50-year period with a data point that may only reset 10-15 times.

Instead of a 50-year period, though, what if we wanted to see a narrower impact by looking at a period of ~10 years containing more than one data point? For the purposes of this publication, the focus of swimflation will be NCAA swimming championships. Special shout out to Arizona State Associate Head Coach, Herbie Behm (@SirHerb_the3rd), and his swimflation tweet:

The Data Set

The following data set was used in this analysis:

• Gender: 2 = Female and Male

• Pool Length: all races are short-course-yards (i.e., 25-yard pool, “SCY”)

• Competition: NCAA Division 1 Swimming Championships (“NCAAs”)

• Years: 12 per gender = 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022

• Strokes: 5 = Butterfly, Backstroke, Breaststroke, Freestyle, Medley (aka Fly, Back, Breast, Free)

• Individual Events: 13 per gender = 50 Free, 100 Free, 200 Free, 500 Free, 1650 Free, 100 Back, 200 Back, 100 Breast, 200 Breast, 100 Fly, 200 Fly, 200 Medley, 400 Medley)

• Relay Events: 5 per gender = 200 Free, 400 Free, 800 Free, 200 Medley, 400 Medley

• Place: 16th place from Preliminaries (“Prelims 16th”) and 1st place from Finals (“Finals 1st“) per event per gender

Note: For some years, the 1650 and relays are timed finals and therefore in-season best-time was used in place of the Preliminaries time.

NCAA D1 Swimflation

The “fast-suit” era ended in 2009.  That means the first NCAA Division 1 Swimming Championships that occurred without “fast-suits” was in March 2010.

This publication attempts to quantify the swimflation values over the last 10+ years by analyzing the swimming performances at the NCAAs.

Question: What is the swimflation rate of NCAAs?

In the index examples from MeenaMoney, the benchmark was the world record.  However, to gauge the swimflation of NCAAs, the following times will be referenced as benchmarks:

• NCAA Preliminaries 16th Place – this benchmark will gauge the speed required to qualify for finals from the preliminaries

• NCAA Finals 1st Place – this benchmark will gauge the speed required to win finals

These two benchmarks, separately, are telling, but also will be interested to see the variance between the two data points.

The following 8 exhibits and 16 tables show the relative improvements of 16th place and 1st place from 2010 through 2012, by gender and by stroke.

Note, for the purposes of all exhibits, a negative percentage implies a time is faster than its comparable

Exhibit 1
Female Freestyle Events

16th Place from Prelims

• On average, improved between (0.3%) and (1.4%)

• The largest improvement, (2.1%), was in the 50 Free from 22.47 to 21.99
  
  

1st Place from Finals

• On average, improved between (0.7%) and (3.7%)

• The largest improvement, (5.4%), was in the 50 Free from (22.04) to (20.84)
  
  

16th Place Prelims to 1st Place Finals

• Finals 1st was between (1.9%) and (6.4%) faster than Prelims 16th

• The largest variance, (6.4%), was in the 1650 Free with 16:10.11 to 15:07.70

Exhibit 2
Female Butterfly and Backstroke Events

16th Place from Prelims

• Butterfly, on average, improved between (0.1%) and (2.0%)

• Backstroke, on average, improved between 0.1% and (2.4%)
  
  

1st Place from Finals

• Butterfly, on average, improved between 0.3% and (3.0%)

• Backstroke, on average, improved between 0.8% and (3.1%)
  
  

16th Place Prelims to 1st Place Finals

• Butterfly Finals 1st was between (1.7%) and (6.2%) faster than Prelims 16th

• Backstroke Finals 1st was between (2.7%) and (6.0%) faster than Prelims 16th

Exhibit 3
Female Breaststroke and Medley Events

16th Place from Prelims

• Breaststroke, on average, improved between (0.4%) and (2.6%)

• Medley, on average, improved between 0.4% and (1.4%)
  
  

1st Place from Finals

• Breaststroke, on average, improved between (0.2%) and (3.8%)

• Medley, on average, improved between (0.2%) and (2.6%)
  
  

16th Place Prelims to 1st Place Finals

• Breaststroke Finals 1st was between (2.6%) and (6.4%) faster than Prelims 16th

• Medley Finals 1st was between (3.0%) and (5.3%) faster than Prelims 16th

Exhibit 4
Female Relay Events

16th Place from Prelims

• Freestyle relays, on average, improved between (0.7%) and (2.1%)

• Medley relays, on average, improved between (0.4%) and (3.2%)
  
  

1st Place from Finals

• Freestyle relays, on average, improved between (0.4%) and (2.8%)

• Medley relays, on average, improved between (0.7%) and (3.6%)
  
  

16th Place Prelims to 1st Place Finals

• Freestyle relays Finals 1st was between (2.6%) and (5.1%) faster than Prelims 16th

• Medley relays Finals 1st was between (2.5%) and (4.8%) faster than Prelims 16th

Exhibit 5
Male Freestyle Events

16th Place from Prelims

• On average, improved between 0.1% and (2.4%)

• The largest improvement, (3.0%), was in the 100 Free from 43.22 to 41.92
  
  

1st Place from Finals

• On average, improved between (0.1%) and (3.6%)

• The largest improvement, (5.4%), was in the 50 Free from (18.93) to (17.63)
  
  

16th Place Prelims to 1st Place Finals

• Finals 1st was between (1.7%) and (8.2%) faster than Prelims 16th

• The largest variance, (8.2%), was in the 50 Free with 19.20 to 17.63

Exhibit 6
Male Butterfly and Backstroke Events

16th Place from Prelims

• Butterfly, on average, improved between 0.2% and (3.1%)

• Backstroke, on average, improved between 0.2% and (2.8%)
  
  

1st Place from Finals

• Butterfly, on average, improved between (0.4%) and (3.8%)

• Backstroke, on average, improved between (0.1%) and (3.6%)
  
  

16th Place Prelims to 1st Place Finals

• Butterfly Finals 1st was between (2.8%) and (6.3%) faster than Prelims 16th

• Backstroke Finals 1st was between (2.7%) and (5.7%) faster than Prelims 16th

Exhibit 7
Male Breaststroke and Medley Events

16th Place from Prelims

• Breaststroke, on average, improved between 0.2% and (2.8%)

• Medley, on average, improved between 0.4% and (2.5%)
  
  

1st Place from Finals

• Breaststroke, on average, improved between (0.5%) and (3.9%)

• Medley, on average, improved between (0.2%) and (3.9%)
  
  

16th Place Prelims to 1st Place Finals

• Breaststroke Finals 1st was between (2.1%) and (6.5%) faster than Prelims 16th

• Medley Finals 1st was between (1.7%) and (5.1%) faster than Prelims 16th

Exhibit 8
Male Relay Events

16th Place from Prelims

• Freestyle relays, on average, improved between (0.3%) and (2.9%)

• Medley relays, on average, improved between 2.3% and (3.1%)
  
  

1st Place from Finals

• Freestyle relays, on average, improved between 0.8% and (2.1%)

• Medley relays, on average, improved between 0.4% and (1.9%)
  
  

16th Place Prelims to 1st Place Finals

• Freestyle relays Finals 1st was between (2.2%) and (7.7%) faster than Prelims 16th

• Medley relays Finals 1st was between (2.5%) and (7.8%) faster than Prelims 16th

Conclusion

Question: What is the swimflation rate of NCAAs?

Answer: Swimflation = ~3.5%

When measuring inflation, maybe one reference’s the CPI, or maybe they just look at the price of gas around the corner.  Both are indicators.

Multiple indicators are also helpful when measuring swimflation. In MeenaMoney, it was hypothesized that Females and Males have become ~10-12% physically stronger based on the world record progression of freestyle swimming events.  But that was over ~50-years.

In this publication, by creating the first unofficial index focused on swimflation, we can answer the question of “what is the swimflation rate of NCAAs?” with a targeted time window since the “fast-suit” era ended.

To answer the question, the NCAA D1 Swimflation Index (measured from 2010 through 2022), for:

• an individual to qualify for finals, 16th place Prelims has progressed ~3.1%

• an individual to win finals, 1st place Finals has progressed ~3.9%

• a relay to qualify for finals, 16th place Prelims has progressed ~3.2%

• a relay to win finals, 1st place Finals has progressed ~3.6%

Therefore, roughly, the suggested NCAA D1 Swimflation Index across the board of all events is a ~3.5% progression in times from 2010 through 2022.

Said differently, for every 30 seconds it took to finish a race in 2010, it now takes 28.95 seconds.

Footnotes

Author: Elliot Meena

Published: May 09, 2022

Sources: USInflationCalculator, NCAA, Merriam-Webster

Notes:

• SCY: Short-Course-Yards (i.e., a 25-yard pool)

• LCM: Long-Course-Meters (i.e., a 50-meter pool)

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